Analysts: Ex-Philippine President Duterte’s ICC arrest ups stakes for May polls

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest on a world court warrant over alleged crimes against humanity has raised the stakes for May midterm elections amid an already volatile political climate, analysts said. 

His March 11 arrest and transfer to the custody of the International Criminal Court in The Hague took place in the run-up to the May 12 polls and a month after Philippine lawmakers impeached his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte.

The upcoming midterms were already shaping up to be a battle between the Dutertes and Marcoses – two of the most powerful families in Philippine politics – but the elder Duterte’s arrest throws an X factor into the rivalry between the feuding clans that were once formidable allies, according to observers.

“The Dutertes will do their best to win [in the elections]. But the Marcos camp may actually still double the efforts to end or subdue the [Duterte] dynasty,” Jean Franco, a political analyst from the University of the Philippines, told BenarNews. 

“They’re also scared of the revenge of the Dutertes,” she said, referring to the Marcoses. 

The political alliance between the two families led to a big win in the May 2022 national polls, but it ended acrimoniously amid pressure on the Marcos administration to allow an ICC investigation into former President Duterte’s bloody drug war. 

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But President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has an advantage, according to Franco: His administration has all the resources and machinery for the upcoming polls.

The Dutertes are gunning for top posts in their stronghold Davao City, with the former president running for mayor, his youngest son Sebastian running for vice mayor, and oldest son Paolo running for congressional reelection. 

On the national stage, Marcos is supporting 12 senatorial candidates, while several allies of the Duterte family are campaigning to run for the Senate in a bid to protect the vice president during her impeachment trial scheduled to begin in July. Sara Duterte was impeached for alleged constitutional violations and other high crimes, including plotting to assassinate President Marcos.

“It’s an electoral cycle, nothing is off the table,” said Aries Arugay, chair of the political science department at the University of the Philippines.

Sara Duterte, who accused unidentified Marcos allies of undermining her prospects in the 2028 elections, is seen as a top contender for the 2028 presidential race, according to some surveys and analysts.

For political analyst Ronald Llamas, there is a possibility of an “uprising and mutiny” backed by the Dutertes against the Marcos administration.

“They have no other option [but] to bring down Marcos,” Llamas told BenarNews on Wednesday.

Last week, authorities said military branches remained united amid reports that Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest had divided the ranks. The Philippine National Police also tightened security measures countrywide after Duterte was sent off to The Hague.

Recent pre-election surveys show that Duterte’s longtime aide, Sen. Christopher “Bong” Go, is the most preferred candidate. Also included in the possible winning circle is Sen. Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, the enforcer of Duterte’s drug war, who is among those implicated in the ICC case.

Go and Dela Rosa, two of the staunchest allies of the former president, are seeking reelection in the Senate.

The battle will be over for dela Rosa if and when the ICC issues a warrant against him within the year, Llamas said.

Dela Rosa said he was considering hiding and not surrendering should authorities arrest him on an ICC warrant.

“If you don’t see any justice in this country, then why surrender?” Dela Rosa told reporters on Wednesday. “That’s one of the courses of action we are considering.”

Candidates gauge political winds

But analysts said other election candidates were still hedging as they tried to gauge public sentiment over the arrest of Duterte, who left office in 2022 as one of the Philippines’ most popular presidents.

“Many candidates are still on the fence, trying to see where political winds are blowing,” Arugay told BenarNews on Wednesday. 

“They are waiting for big rallies around the country, the emotional outrage that will pour out in the streets. But so far, aside from Mindanao [the political bailiwick of the Dutertes], not much.”

For Arugay, the critical point is the arrest of Dela Rosa because “if the candidates see it’s not just Duterte, it will be hard for them to stay on the fence.”

There are no surveys yet on the public sentiment on Duterte’s arrest. 

But in previous years, surveys by the Philippine pollster Social Weather Stations showed dominant public approval for the ICC case against Duterte.

“The gross approval was between 49 and 59 percent, while gross disapproval was between 21 and 27 percent,” wrote SWS president Mahar Mangahas in his March 15 column in the Philippine Daily Inquirer. 

Mangahas said that while the former president was very popular during his term from 2016 to 2022, “public opinion about Duterte’s War on Drugs was consistently unfavorable to him.”

Sara Duterte’s fate in 2028

As for the presidential elections in 2028, analysts said it was too early to predict.

Arugay and Llamas said a lot could still happen over the next three years.

Llamas said that three swords of Damocles were hanging over the vice president’s head. Aside from her father’s ICC arrest, Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial in July and possible criminal complaints against her may disqualify her, if she’s convicted.

“Even if just one [sword] will fall on her head, it will be her political annihilation,” Llamas said.

Meanwhile for Arugay, while the vice president’s popularity ratings remain high, it is not yet within the range of assured victory.

“We have yet to see whether or not [the issues affecting her] will chip away from the supposed Teflon likability and the invincibility of the Duterte dynasty.”