Manila, Beijing eye new South China Sea ‘hotline’ to manage disputes

A hotline between the highest levels of the Philippine and Chinese governments aimed at managing their disputes in the South China Sea is close to being agreed, Filipino officials said, but some analysts are skeptical it can ease tensions.

The emergency telephone hotline is covered by a proposed agreement that seeks to establish several channels for communications on key maritime issues, according to two sources in the Philippines foreign affairs department who are familiar with the situation. China’s foreign ministry has acknowledged the recent progress toward establishing the hotline.

It was not immediately clear how the new hotline differs from the one announced after Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in January last year.

Under the latest proposed mechanism, the presidential offices of both countries would appoint representatives to handle urgent and sensitive issues to head off trouble in the potentially mineral-rich sea region. Manila and Beijing’s foreign ministries would also be in the loop, according to the proposal.

Coordination will be done through a secure channel “which will be set up once the corresponding MOU [memorandum of understanding] between the coast guards is concluded,” according to an official in Manila’s foreign affairs department, who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly on the issue.

The Philippines has become a flashpoint in tensions between Southeast Asian nations and China that stem from Beijing’s expansive claims to the entirety of the South China Sea – an important route for global shipping. 

China has refused to heed an international tribunal’s landmark 2016 ruling, in favor of the Philippines, that there was no evidence to support China’s assertion it had exercised exclusive control historically over the waterway.

A senior Filipino diplomat who requested anonymity because they are not allowed to speak on the matter said the new “mechanism is an improvement” from the previous one.

“The guidelines which will govern the implementation of the agreement are still being discussed,” the official told BenarNews on Thursday. 

Maritime expert Ray Powell raised doubts about whether the hotline could calm raging tensions between the two countries over the disputed waterway.

“Hotlines with China have an uninspiring history,” he told BenarNews on Thursday. “The Philippines itself has already experienced having its phone calls to Beijing go unanswered, as have other countries.”

With this scenario in mind, “there is no reason to believe this hotline will fare better,” said Powell, a geopolitical analyst at the Gordian Knot Center for National Innovation at Stanford University. 

While engaging in a peaceful dialogue with China is commendable, Beijing diplomats often use their counterparts’ desire for “de-escalation” as “leverage,” Powell said. “It costs them nothing and often helps them garner concessions in exchange.”

Political analyst Aries Arugay said that open lines of communication between Manila and Beijing also required “strategic trust.”

“Communication is always a two-way street, so there must be sincerity from both sides, especially China,” Arugay told BenarNews on Thursday, noting that the hotline previously established was “ineffective.”

“I’m afraid this [new hotline will be used] just to defuse the negative backlash from [China’s] aggression in the West Philippine Sea,” said Arugay, a visiting senior fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

The West Philippine Sea is Manila’s name for South China Sea waters within its exclusive economic zone.

Filipino officials say hopes were high when a hotline was purportedly set up between the two countries after Marcos’ Beijing visit. But during a tense confrontation at Second Thomas (Ayungin) Shoal in August of last year, Filipino officials were unable to reach their Chinese counterparts.

“We already have a hotline [with China on South China Sea matters]. But when we called them up on several incidents, they did not answer. They would answer only at the time of their choosing. So, it's useless,” former Supreme Court associate justice Antonio Carpio said Wednesday.

International studies professor Renato de Castro also questioned the basis for establishing a new hotline.

“The actions of the Chinese Coast Guard, the maritime militia, and the People's Liberation Army [in the South China Sea] are actually being directed from Beijing,” he told ABS-CBN news program “Top Story” on Wednesday. 

“What's the purpose of a hotline, if what's happening there is actually part of a grand scheme of China's expansion and coercive action against the Philippines?”

Full details about the new hotline have yet to be released, but the mechanism was among the topics discussed by the Philippines and China during their 9th Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on the South China Sea on July 2 to reduce tensions in the South China Sea. 

The July 2 meeting came on the heels of a tense standoff between Filipino servicemen and Chinese coast guard personnel at Ayungin Shoal on June 17. 

One Filipino soldier also lost a thumb during the incident, where the Chinese personnel confiscated the Filipinos’ firearms and used axes and blades to slash a Philippine rubber boat. 

The encounter resulted in 60 million pesos (U.S. $1 million) in damages, according to Filipino military officials.

At the shoal, the Philippines maintains the BRP Sierra Madre, a World War II-era naval ship grounded in 1999 to serve as the country’s outpost. Manila runs regular rotation and resupply missions to the shoal.

On Wednesday, China welcomed the proposed hotline and said it was a direct result of the recent consultations. 

Beijing and Manila had agreed to “further enhance communication and dialogue” to keep their relationship “stable,” said Jin Lian, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman.

“Any good-faith initiatives between our government and the Chinese government in Beijing to de-escalate the situation are welcome,” Philippine Senator Risa Hontiveros told BenarNews.

“However, talk should be accompanied by action, specifically in the form of a firm commitment to stop the harassment of Philippine vessels, Filipino personnel, and fisherfolk in our own exclusive economic zone and extended continental shelf,” she said.